CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2020-11-29T13:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2020-11-29T13:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16156/-1
CME Note: An eruption from the active region beyond the southeastern limb of the Earth-facing disk resulted in a M4.4 flare that peaked at 2020-11-29T13:11Z. This eruption resulted in a CME in the SE of STEREO-A COR2A (partial halo) and in the east of SOHO C2 starting around 2020-11-29T13:24Z; the CME front can later be seen in SOHO C3 at 2020-11-29T13:30Z. (NOTE: The time of this CME has been updated to 2020-11-29T13:24Z as that is the first available image the CME is seen in STEREO-A COR2; the originally input time was 2020-11-29T13:00Z.) Lan Jian - I think there may be a shock near 21UT on Dec 1. DSCOVR data show sharp increases of Np, V, and Tp at the time. After the shock, there seems to be some smooth magnetic field rotations during about 02-20 UT on Dec 2. However, the peak total field strength is only about 7 nT, quite weak. The Bz south reaches only about 3 nT.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2020-12-01T21:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-12-02T05:31Z
Prediction Method: CAT-PUMA
Prediction Method Note:
This is a prediction for the CME at 2020-11-29 13:25 UT CME Parameters from SOHO LASCO C2 & C3: Onset time: 2020-11-29 13:25 UT Angular width: 360 Average speed: 1639.6 km/s Final speed: 1414.7 km/s Mass: 9.70e15 g (average value from the model) MPA: 85.3 Solar Wind Parameters from DSCOVR Spacecraft: Bz: 1.843 nT Alpha-Proton Ratio: 0.041 # No observation, use average value in the model Flow Speed: 372.425 km/s Flow Latitude: 3.932 degree Pressure: 0.223 nPa Flow Longitude: 6.343 degree Bx: -3.407 nT Temperature: 31645.42 KLead Time: 34.23 hour(s)
Difference: -8.52 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Jiajia Liu (QUB) on 2020-11-30T10:46Z
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